Everyone is talking about Friday and Saturday. Social media is calling for a “big winter storm” with “a lot of snow”.
The potential of seeing any winter weather is gradually diminishing, but it all depends on the exact track the low pressure system takes.
This system working in is a typical winter low pressure system. Snow/ice on the north side, rain and storms on the south side. Models are hinting at a shallow area of high pressure at the surface setting up just to our north/northwest this afternoon. For winter weather fans, that is good news. What this will do is promote a northerly flow, bringing in colder air, which is critical for any winter weather.
What’s the worry? The system itself is packed full of gulf moisture, which holds a good bit of warm air. A warm front on the leading edge will be the difference between rain and a wintry mix.
With the system advancing to the east-northeast, there is a possibility that the warm front will make it close enough to the Blythewood areas to increase temperatures before the bulk of the moisture arrives. This would kill any chance of seeing snow and likely promote a mostly rain event with some sleet mixing in at times.
Rain showers will start to push in early Friday afternoon. At this point, temperatures will be well above freezing in the upper 30s and low 40s. With that said, no snow or sleet is expected early in the day on Friday.
By early to late evening on Friday, future radar likes the idea of a few snow showers, mainly in Fairfield County.
In my opinion, this model is slightly overdoing the idea of snowfall, simply because at this time, the low-pressure system will be to our southwest. This would pull in warmer air out of the south along a southerly breeze.
I am not saying this is completely out of the question, but I don’t see that much snowfall across the northern half of the state. But it could mix in with rain and sleet.
By 12 a.m. Saturday morning, future radar jumps on board with the warm air being pulled in out of the south. This pushes the snow shield north, and brings in heavier rain, with some sleet mixed in.
By 2 a.m. Saturday morning, the southerly flow becomes more prominent causing a mostly rain event for the rest of the overnight period.
Another concern throughout the morning is the possibility of freezing rain. Computer models do not depict freezing rain that well because it is actually just rain. The variable that determines whether the rain is “freezing rain” or not are the temperatures at ground-level and on the surface it falls on.
Freezing rain occurs when those surface and road temperatures are at or below the freezing point (32°F). When the rain hits this cold surface, it will start to freeze on contact, causing a layer of ice to form. I am forecasting a low temperature of around 28-30° for the Blythewood/Fairfield County area, so it is not out of the question.
With this event, I don’t see a major ice accumulation because of the warmer air pushing in. This will not only bring warmer temperatures at the ground-level, but also at around 3,000-5,000 ft above our heads. The warmer air will actually move in at a much quicker rate above our heads.
This would mean the precipitation will melt through this layer, but since surface temperatures could be below freezing, they will re-freeze as sleet if they have enough time to do so. If they do not have enough time to re-freeze before reaching the surface, that would also mean the possibility of freezing rain, assuming the temperature of the surface it hits is at or below freezing.
After a few hour toss-up between rain, freezing rain and sleet, our cold front starts to move in around 6 a.m.
Since low pressure looks to be northeast of it, it will toss in some colder air out of the north. This could mean a few more rain and/or snow showers for us around sunrise Saturday morning. But it will quickly come to an end by 7-8 a.m. as the cold front passes by.
At the end of the day, it would be a good idea to prepare for ice, but it will only be a concern between 7 p.m. Friday night until noon on Saturday afternoon. If you have to travel between these times, allow yourselves an extra 15-20 minutes to get to your destination. Most importantly, take it slow on the roads in case there is some minor ice accumulation.
In terms of snowfall, little to no accumulation is expected. If there does happen to be a period of snow showers, then it could briefly accumulate. Then when the rain works in, that very light snow accumulation turns into an ice concern.
After noon Saturday, temperatures will be in the middle 40s, so anything that is left over whether it be ice or snow will start to melt. With sunshine also returning, it will accelerate the melting process through Saturday morning and afternoon.
Richland Two Reschedules After-School Events
In a weather update on Monday, Richland School District Two announced that all athletic events scheduled for Friday have been rescheduled for Thursday, Jan. 9. As of the release, no changes are planned for the school day and after-school care programs.
Fairfield County Prepares
In a release from the Fairfield County Sheriff’s Office, Sheriff Will Montgomery urged residents to use good judgement this weekend.
“If there’s any type of accumulation, please stay off the roads unless absolutely necessary,” he said. “If you do need to travel, let someone know your route and arrival time, and check in once you’ve reached your destination. Look out for your family, friends, and neighbors—especially the elderly—and call us if we can be of assistance. Stay safe!”
